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China Macro Focus ENG

Macro Focus: China Q2 GDP and other macro indicators

According to the data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, in Q2 2021, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached […]

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Macro Focus ENG

Macro Focus: US Consumer Prices in perspective

The latest reading of the US Consumer Price Indexes for June compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed how the double impact of a surging US and global demand and lingering supply side constraints translated into turbo-charged consumer prices. In this article, we analyse in detail the latest CPI figures and elaborate on their potential path in the coming months.

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Commodities Market focus ENG Oil

Market focus: How tight is the US oil market?

Overall, crude oil inventories have moved back to their pre-COVID levels but gasoline inventories are still at the higher end of the 2015-2019 range. This has happened despite US refinery intake of crude oil still being below the pre-COVID 5-years range and after a severe production disruption in February 2021 as a result of an exceptional cold wave. Bottom line: the current level of oil prices is far from guaranteed. The reality check could be sobering, especially if the delta variant proves to be disruptive for the global recovery and if OPEC/OPEC+ does not manage to keep to its 2020 playbook

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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence Technology

Document: Cybersecurity Law of the People’s Republic of China (中华人民共和国网络安全法)

Unofficial translation. Retrieved from the site of China’s Cyberspace Administration Cybersecurity Law of the People’s Republic of China (Adopted at […]

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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence

Document: China’s Data Security Law (中华人民共和国数据安全法)

Disclaimer: The following content is intended only for informational purpose to support the author’s opinions and related analysis. It should […]

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Macro Flash

Macro Flash: China’s consumer and producer prices for June

In June 2021, China’s consumer prices fell by 0.4 percent month-on-month, translating into a 1.1 percent increase year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Industrial producer prices rose by 0.3 percent month-on-month resulting in a 8.8 rise on a year-on-year basis. The strong yearly increase in industrial prices is to a large extent the result of a low baseline with commodity prices moving well ahead above their pre-COVID levels.

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Central Bank Watch Macro Focus ENG

Macro Focus: Taking stock of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy

Following the conclusion of its Monetary Policy Review, the ECB has updated its monetary policy strategy. The main evolution is the replacement of the ambiguous “below, but close to two percent” inflation target by an unambiguous two per cent inflation target over the medium term. The Governing Council’s commitment to this target is symmetric, meaning that negative and positive deviations from this target are considered as equally undesirable. In line with the Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework, the ECB acknowledges the necessity to tolerate above target inflation in order to anchor long term inflation expectations at two percent. The second change is the introduction of climate risk as an input in the Central Bank’s monetary policy operational framework. In this article, we analyse the rationale, the technicalities and the potential implications of these changes.

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Macro Flash

Macro Flash: Key takeaways from the FOMC June Meeting Minutes

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Macro Flash

Macro Flash: Japan’s Business conditions and growth outlook

The latest Data from Japan’s Cabinet Office shows that Business conditions in Japan deteriorated slightly in May against their level reached in April. This has affected the Coincident Index more than the Leading Index. Overall the gap between the two indexes remains significant as Japan is still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic amid promises made by the Suga administration to accelerate the vaccination campaign and to continue supporting the economy.

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Market focus ENG

Market Focus: Squaring the OPEC+ circle

OPEC+ failed to reach an agreement on raising crude supplies at it latest meeting. The most contentious issue was the baseline to calculate potential individual contributions be considered for an extension of the OPEC+ agreement beyond April 2022. OPEC+ agreed last year to cut output by almost 10 million barrels per day from May 2020, with plans to phase out the curbs by the end of April 2022. Cuts now stand at about 5.8 million barrels per day. As reported by Reuters, OPEC+ “voted on Friday to raise output by some 2 million barrels per day from August to December 2021 and to extend remaining cuts to the end of 2022, but UAE objections prevented agreement”. The UAE, which managed to increase its production capabilities unsuccessfully asked the coalition to revise upward its own production baseline in order to accept the extension of the production cuts in 2022. This would have de facto translated into a quota waiver and into a weakening of the established allocation structure for individual contributions. As usual in the case of “OPEC and Friends”, it is important to understand behind-the-scene negotiations and the bargaining process in order to fully grasp the significance of the latest move.