Categories
Uncategorized

[Strategic Foresight] Morocco: from Resilience to Emergence

We have been asked by Deloitte, one of the leading global consultancies, to make sense of the challenges and opportunities faced by the Kingdom of Morocco in a post-COVID world. Here is an introduction to the report. A link is provided to download the full report co-authored by Alexandre Kateb, alongside Deloitte partners Emmanuel Gadret and Mehdi Serghini.

Categories
Macro Focus ENG

Macro Focus: An update on the US economy

Key takeaways The softening of the US recovery is continuing apace with different components of the macroeconomic compound showing signs […]

Categories
Central Bank Watch Macro Focus ENG Market focus ENG

From talking the talk to walking the walk: the Fed’s on tapering mode

Most participants to the FOMC July meeting noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year because they saw the Committee’s “substantial further progress” criterion as satisfied with respect to the price-stability goal and as close to being satisfied with respect to the maximum-employment goal.

Categories
Macro Focus ENG United States

The COVID conundrum: Consumption, inflation and GDP growth

The COVID-19 recession brought to the fore some very unusual and puzzling patterns between different macroeconomic aggregates, with supply side bottlenecks and shortages, record consumer inflation and the unusual coexistence of an unusually tight labour market altogether with record labor slack. The COVID recession itself lasted only two months according to the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. The fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has corrected some of its most dire human and economic consequences but it has also led to new imbalances and it has magnified some of the imbalances that existed prior to the pandemic. The combined impact of all these imbalances, direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on supply and demand have shaped a very peculiar COVID-19 related business cycle, giving rise to what one might call “the COVID-19 conundrum”.

Categories
China Macro Focus ENG

Macro Focus: China Q2 GDP and other macro indicators

According to the data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, in Q2 2021, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached […]

Categories
Macro Focus ENG

Macro Focus: US Consumer Prices in perspective

The latest reading of the US Consumer Price Indexes for June compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed how the double impact of a surging US and global demand and lingering supply side constraints translated into turbo-charged consumer prices. In this article, we analyse in detail the latest CPI figures and elaborate on their potential path in the coming months.

Categories
Commodities Market focus ENG Oil

Market focus: How tight is the US oil market?

Overall, crude oil inventories have moved back to their pre-COVID levels but gasoline inventories are still at the higher end of the 2015-2019 range. This has happened despite US refinery intake of crude oil still being below the pre-COVID 5-years range and after a severe production disruption in February 2021 as a result of an exceptional cold wave. Bottom line: the current level of oil prices is far from guaranteed. The reality check could be sobering, especially if the delta variant proves to be disruptive for the global recovery and if OPEC/OPEC+ does not manage to keep to its 2020 playbook

Categories
Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence Technology

Document: Cybersecurity Law of the People’s Republic of China (中华人民共和国网络安全法)

Unofficial translation. Retrieved from the site of China’s Cyberspace Administration Cybersecurity Law of the People’s Republic of China (Adopted at […]

Categories
Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence

Document: China’s Data Security Law (中华人民共和国数据安全法)

Disclaimer: The following content is intended only for informational purpose to support the author’s opinions and related analysis. It should […]

Categories
Macro Flash

Macro Flash: China’s consumer and producer prices for June

In June 2021, China’s consumer prices fell by 0.4 percent month-on-month, translating into a 1.1 percent increase year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Industrial producer prices rose by 0.3 percent month-on-month resulting in a 8.8 rise on a year-on-year basis. The strong yearly increase in industrial prices is to a large extent the result of a low baseline with commodity prices moving well ahead above their pre-COVID levels.