Discover NowCAST+ (Official Launch in Q1 2022)
Quarterly GDP + Inflation Forecasts (Weekly Updates + News Impact Analysis)
- Nowcast+ United States
- Nowcast+ Eurozone+UK
- Nowcast+ Japan+Korea
- Nowcast+ China
- Nowcast+ Emerging ex. China
- Nowcast+ G20 (All of the above + World GDP)
More often than not timely economic predictions are based on extrapolations of national accounts, rules of thumb and (consensus) expert judgement. We believe expert judgement should come atop rigorous quantitative methodologies. This is the main rationale for the launch of our proprietary nowcasting service.
Our methodology is based on ‘state of the art’ statistical techniques. Inter allia, we use Dynamic factor models – leveraging on the pioneering work of Stock and Watson -, gradually enriched with Bayesian estimation techniques and machine learning algorithms. Deng Xiaoping once said, ‘No matter if the cat is white or black cat; as long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat.’ In nowcasting/forecasting, however, the estimation of the prediction error is as important as the point forecast itself, if not more.
We like to think of our Nowcasting service as of an (Electric) racing car with a powerful engine which needs constant fine-tuning to achieve its best results. In both cases, the pilots and the mechanics are as important as the machine itself.