Our nowcasting model shows that US GDP might fall by -29% in 2Q 2020 and that unemployment might take up to three years to return to its pre-crisis levels. These results cast additional shadows over the assumption of a V-shape recovery for the US economy, which has already been abandoned by the Federal Reserve.Continue reading
TThe FOMC April 28 meeting minutes provide some glimpse into the Federal Reserve’s early assessment of the crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the outlook for the US economy over the coming months and quarters. Fed Chair Powell testimony on May 19 before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban affairs offers additional insights into the Fed’s current thinking and options to contain the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis and to speed-up the recovery of the US economy.Continue reading
A temporary production reduction agreement under current conditions is not necessarily in the interest of all stakeholders in the global oil industry
This deal will not solve the huge oversupply that is currently still building-up
The oil war is not due to misunderstandings or ego plays but to the intrinsically different strategies and motives of the key players at hand.
For all these reasons, an OPEC ++ coalition cannot not be sustained over time and its impact on oil prices is likely to be marginal and disappointing.
Willl the Covid-19 reshape the global economy? What are the most important hotspots and the blindspots revealed by this crisis? We tackle this issue in this article. Beyond the handling of the health crisis and the exceptional support measures designed to ensure that hundreds of millions or even billions of people around the world do not lose their livelihoods overnight, the most worrying concern are the medium- and long-term consequences of the crisis for the global economy.Continue reading
Alexandre Kateb was interviewed on RT International about Saudi Arabia’s “oil put” strategy following the Kingdom’s decision to flood the market with cheap oil in order to squeeze the other major oil producers.Continue reading
In order to better measure the impact of value chains fragmentation, we conducted an “input-output” analysis to highlight the dependence of the US economy on Chinese output, branch by branch.Continue reading
Keynote speech pronounced at the AJ NEWS Asia Pacific Financial Forum in Seoul, Republic of Korea, March 2018. The recent plan announced by US President […]Continue reading
The liberal world order that was shaped by the United States and its allies half a century ago is not necessarily doomed by the advent of multipolarity. I explain why in this article.Continue reading
Interview on the situation in the euro zone and the outlook for the major currenciesContinue reading