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Business Intelligence China ENG Future of Money & Finance

Future of Money: An update on China’s Digital Yuan Project

Known as the Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DC/EP), the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) project piloted by the People’s Bank of China is so far the most advanced projet of its kind in the world. The introduction of a CBDC in the world’s most populous country and second largest economy may have far reaching consequences.

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China ENG Macro Flash

Macro Flash: Surveys show China’s recovery is strong but uneven

The released Official China NBS/CFLP PMI and the Caixin/IHS Markit PMI for August showed both that the Chinese economy was undergoing a robust growth recovery in August. However, the Official PMI shows that the economic recovery is uneven and is driven first and foremost by large manufacturing enterprises and by the construction sector., which benefited the most from the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. Export orders continued their recovery initiated in June but the major driver of growth was domestic demand. Employment remained muted as companies still face uncertainties related to the COVI19 pandemic and its impact on economies across the world. Expectations remain anchored at a high level, although they edged lower compared to July and June.

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Business Intelligence China ENG European Union Premium

Business & Geopolitics: Europe’s New FDI screening regulations

On June 17 2020, ahead of a tense EU-China summit, the European Commission published a white paper on levelling the playing field as regards foreign subsidies. The white paper is the result of a yearlong inflexion in EU’s foreign policy and economic doctrine in order to adapt the European Union to the realities of a Multipolar World by promoting a model of open strategic autonomy and by acknowledging China as a “strategic competitor” and as a “strategic rival”.

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Business Intelligence China Economy ENG Global Risks Other G20 / Global United States

Business & Geopolitics: The ORE of discord or the Battle for Rare Earths

Rare earhs could become a focal point in the coming trade battles following the scraping of that agreement. Several initiatives like Sen. Ted Cruz ORE legislation and Commerce Sec. Wilbur Ross inquiry into vanadium imports support this claim. We explain why the Battle for rare earths is a the heart of a reshaping of globalisation and an acceleration of the technology race in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.

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China ENG Other G20 / Global Sovereign Bonds

Macro Focus: Economic policy in China between the hammer and the anvil

the main focus for observers of the Chinese economy n the coming months and quarters should not be on the overall size of the stimulus package but on the nitty gritty details pertaining to the allocation of government-backed funds across sectors and geographic areas. In the context of an intensifying trade and technological war, a significant part of the effort could be geared toward insuring that productivity gains will be preserved in the post-Covid era by investing in Industry 4.0 and high tech ventures. Another area of focus is the need to reduce social inequalities – a subject that has been taboo for years if not decades in the wake of China’s transition to a market based economy – and supporting the build-up of an ambitious and comprehensive social safety net – targeting the rural population and migrant workers – that could increase social cohesion and preserve political stability in the years to come.

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China Economy ENG United States

The long view: What is the real economic dependence of the United States on China?

In order to better measure the impact of value chains fragmentation, we conducted an “input-output” analysis to highlight the dependence of the US economy on Chinese output, branch by branch.

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China Economy ENG Global Risks Macro Analysis Other G20 / Global

Understanding the dynamics and counting the cost of the coronavirus

The spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) is currently the number one concern among healthcare specialists, policymakers, journalists, economic and market analysts and ordinary citizens alike.   The elucidation of the disease’s dynamics, death toll and impact on the Chinese and on the global economy are mobilising experts and analysts both in the economics and healthcare communities. […]

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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence China Economy ENG Global Risks Other G20 / Global United States

Donald J. Trump and the return of strategic trade policy

Public statements made by the leaders of Canada, Mexico, the UK, France, Germany, and other EU countries, to protest against Donald Trump’s decision imposing tariffs on aluminium and steel imported to the United States from these countries were predictable. As are the retaliatory measures envisaged by these countries. But this has not prevented the Trump […]

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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence China Economy ENG Other G20 / Global United States

The long view: the legacy of the financial crisis, trade wars, and the future of globalization

Keynote speech pronounced at the AJ NEWS Asia Pacific Financial Forum in Seoul, Republic of Korea, March 2018. The recent plan announced by US President Donald Trump, to increase tariffs on a broad range of Chinese products exported to the United States,  for up to USD 60 billion, and the counterveiling measures announced by Beijing, […]

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Business & Geopolitics Business Intelligence China Economy ENG Global Risks United States

Donald Trump and global order: disruption or continuity?

The picture is reassuring. The Ministers of Finance of the twenty largest economies in the world, together with the Managing Director of the IMF, display a perfunctory smile. But despite this reassuring impression, the G20 Finance Ministers meeting that was held in Baden Baden, in Germany, marks the end of an era. It signals a […]